Own the Haystack

98 years of S&P 500 data - checked, explained, and turned into a one-page plan.

$100 put into the S&P 500 index in 1928 grew to $1.16 million by 2025 - before fees, taxes and inflation ($62,564 in 1927 dollars). Over those same 98 years the index lived through the Great Depression, a world war, oil shocks, the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis and a pandemic crash, and lost money in 26 calendar years. In this US record, every 20-year holding period still ended with a gain, even after inflation - evidence about the past, not a guarantee for the future.

Over the 20 years to mid-2026, 92.6% of professionally managed US large-cap funds trailed the index they were trying to beat.

Own the Haystack tells the story behind those numbers, using published, cited sources:

• How John Bogle's "folly", a fund that raised about $11 million in 1976, changed investing
• Warren Buffett's million-dollar bet against hedge funds, and how it ended
• Black Monday, the 2020 crash and the lost decade of 2000-2009 - in dollars and after inflation
• How a 1% annual fee can take almost a quarter of a 30-year result
• What the record also warns about: Japan's 34-year wait, today's top-heavy index, and currency risk for investors outside the US
• What to check before buying your first index fund, including a checklist for investors outside the US
• How to prepare for your first market crash, with a worksheet you fill in before it happens
• A one-page personal investing plan you can complete, sign and keep

Every calculation was checked three separate ways, the key data were matched across two sources, and an appendix shows you how to download the free data and rebuild the numbers yourself.

For education only. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal; past performance does not guarantee future results. The author accepts no liability for decisions made using this book.