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Pragmatic Guide to Real Options
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The intention of this text is to build the intuition and benefit of real options analysis with the assumption that the reader has no prior expertise. The text will start with understanding basic ideas about probability and how altering the structure of a game of chance into a set of sequential decisions can allow one to make better decisions. These better decisions are accepting risk when the future potential payoff is large enough and discontinuing when the future potential payoff is too small. Essentially, the goal is to understand how to make a cost-benefit comparison when there is risk. From a pedagogy standpoint, the book will be different from what already exists because it will not belabor all of the research and case studies that have been done in the area of real options. Appropriate background material will certainly be cited, but the emphasis will be to build intuition and to build basic real option models to aid in decision making. In other words, the text is meant to be pragmatic and informative and not an academic treatise.
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